08 Aug Daily Fantasy Sports- MLB- Monday, August 8th
Remember guys and gals DFS is made for entertainment and fun, and if you are not having fun or losing your 401k doing it, frankly it is not for you. Remember bankroll management, try to limit yourself to playing 20% of your bankroll on a given night, that way if you have a couple losing nights in a row you will still have money to rebound.
But let’s get back at it again folks, here to help you win some cash tonight on this wonderful nine game slate. The first occurrence that will always come to the forefront of DFS baseball with top precedence is that we have a game in Coors tonight. Nevertheless, it features to solid lefties in Cole Hamels (12-3, 2.89 ERA) and Tyler Anderson (4-3, 3.25 ERA). Usually these games are tagged by Vegas with an 11.5-12.5 run total, and this one is set at 10.5, certainly low for a game up in that thin air of Colorado. We also have some terrific pitchers who come with a not-so-terrific price-tag, mid-tier pitchers that have some question marks and/or tough match-ups, and lastly some low-end cheap pitching with some upside but obviously a lot of risk. Make sure to check the weather before game-lock to ensure that all of your players will not have any qualms about playing. Unless you are a weatherman for a living, I suggest you follow @KevinRoth on twitter, as he is the best person to follow in terms of weather updates on all games for that day. With all of that aside let’s get into it shall we.
SP: Jose Fernandez ($12,800)- Although he recently did record a loss at home against the Cardinals, he is absolutely dominant at home throughout his career with a 26-2 record, a 1.63 ERA with 305 strikeouts over 244.1 innings. He will face a Giants team
SP: Collin McHugh ($6,000)- Going cheap here with a pitcher that has a respectable 8.96 K/9 to go along with a 11.9% swinging-strike rate, which is good for fifth-highest among pitchers tonight. Nevertheless, while the Twins have not hit righties all that well this season, they are coming off of a seven game stretch where they have scored 52, yes 52 runs. They really beat up on Cleveland scoring 37 runs in a four-game series. McHugh won his only matchup with Minnesota giving up four earned runs, two of which via the long ball, and one of whom since has been demoted to the minors in Park. Solid shot at the win with some run support being offered by his teammates against Duffey, with the ability to pick up 6-8 strikeouts along the way.
C: Jonathan Lucroy ($4,600)- This will be where you begin to see the pattern for my philosophy on the night. Since being traded to the Rangers Lucroy is 6-20 (.300) with 3 HR & 5 RBI. Tonight he gets Coors Field and a LHP on the mound.
1B: Chris Davis ($3,400)- After being suffocated at the plate for weeks in a major slump, Davis, was put in the six hole; where he has never batted below fifth in the order all season and delivered a home-run to answer the bell. With the massive slump still looming the price cut was too good for me to pass up going up against a mediocre pitcher in Kendall Graveman tonight. I’m fully aware it’s usually HR or bust for Davis, but be mindful that he hits them in bunches, and Saturday’s display shows that more can be coming.
2B: Jurickson Profar ($4,000)- I am fine with either Profar or Delino DeShields against the Rockies and Tyler Anderson tonight. My assumption is that Profar will be in the lineup and hitting leadoff which puts him in a tremendous spot tonight. The Rangers have the highest run expectancy tonight by a good margin
3B: Adrian Beltre ($4,000)- Huge ballpark upgrade in Coors Field tonight. Beltre historically hits lefties far better than RHP. This season he is hitting .323/.385/.515 Vs LHP.
SS: Zack Cozart ($3,400)- is a sensational 10-for-20 (.500 AVG) with a triple, two doubles, three runs, and just one strikeout throughout his career against
OF: Stephen Piscotty ($4,400)- Piscotty crushes left handed pitching. He’s slashing .340/.441/.650 against southpaws this season. It does not get any juicier than facing the dumpster fire that has been Cody Reed this season, one in which Piscotty homered off of last time they faced off.
OF: Matt Holliday ($3,800)- He is so cheap across the industry and the Cardinals have the third highest run expectancy tonight. Holliday went 2-2 off of the horrible Reed last time they played and will get another chance to improve on those numbers.
OF: Aaron Altherr ($2,700)- After missing most of the season due to a wrist injury that kept him on the DL, Aaron has been on fire since his return having 10 RBI in his first 10 games played this season. He will hit in the heart of the Phillies’ order, and will get the platoon advantage against the young budding star in Urias. He has only pitched into the sixth inning once this season, and has not made it out of the fourth over his last three starts, so it may be a good time to target Urias.
SP: Kevin Gausman ($8,300)- Three of his last four starts have been right on the money and the one that wasn’t was in Toronto back when the Blue Jays were still hitting. Now he gets the A’s who rank 27th with a .301 wOBA against righties, 29th with a .288 wOBA at home and 23rd with a .291 wOBA over the last seven days. If he can keep the right-handed bats in check and maintain that solid 1.47 GB/FB, he should be able to post solid numbers.
C: Jonathan Lucroy ($4,300)- See above.
1B: Adrian Gonzalez ($3,000)- Coming off a solid 34-point performance last night against the Red Sox where he went 3-4 with a HR, RBI, three runs scored. Faces off against a weak RHP in Zach Eflin who has given up 13 earned runs over his last two starts. Feel free to fire up multiple LHH tonight against Eflin, definitely would be a way lower owned stack in tournaments.
2B: Devon Travis ($2,700)- How in the hell is Travis still under $3K on FD? He’s been hitting leadoff for the Jays and has 3 HR and 5 RBI over his last 3 games and a .355 BA over his last 7 games.
3B: Adrian Beltre ($3,800)- See above.
SS: Orlando Arcia ($2,100)- Near minimum price player who has averaged 17.5 FPTS over his last two games, and gets the advantages two-hole spot in front of Braun which could lead to a ton of runs scored if Arcia gets on base.
OF: Ian Desmond ($4,200)- A lefty and Coors Field is just what the doctor ordered to get Desmond back on track. He is hitting .382/.410/.600 against LHP this season.
OF: Matt Holliday ($3,300)- See above.
OF: Max Kepler ($3,300)- Kepler has been on fire of late. he owns a .509 wOBA, a .370 BA and a .444 ISO over his last 7 games. McHugh surrenders a .286 BA and .352 wOBA against LHH.
Some tournament plays tonight go as follows.
SP: Michael Wacha, after Wainwright and Martinez got blown up in their last two starts, Wacha finds himself in a good spot versus the Reds. Kendall Graveman’s last outing was a disaster and that has driven his price and likely ownership down. But over his previous 9 starts he had a 2.87 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and picked up five wins in the process.
Hitters: Milwaukee stack vs. Whalen, cheap hot bats like Arcia, Broxton, Nieuwenhuis, Gennett, mixed in with one of the more expensive Brewers like Braun or Villar versus a guy who has very little experience in the majors. St. Louis stack vs. Reed, Piscotty, Holliday, Pham, Molina, pretty much any righty. Minnesota stack vs. McHugh (lefties in particular). Baltimore stack vs. Graveman, he will either have a solid start and keep the O’s at bay, or this could turn into a slug fest for guys like Machado, Trumbo, Davis, Schoop, and Jones.
Good luck to all!
Find me on twitter: @zaksauer