22 Oct Stromme’s Selections: Striking DraftKings Gold, Week 7 Picks
By: Mike Stromme
Gold: Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons ($7,200)
Okay to me, this one is glaringly obvious. And if it’s that obvious to me, odds are it will be obvious to others. So, you should probably stay away from Ryan in tournament play. Cash games on the other hand, be sure to get him in a few lineups because… Well, I’ll let the numbers do the talking.
Here’s what a 2016 Matt Ryan stat line looks like when he doesn’t have to go into Denver:
128/182 (70%)-1,808-14-2 (if you’re doing the math, that’s 361.6 yards/game)
And, it’s not like his game at Mile High was a total disaster either. 15/28(53.57%)-267-1-0. It’s just the outlier because it was the only game where he was just ordinary, not spectacular. Against a spectacular defense to boot.
Here’s where the Chargers stack up defensively:
23rd in total points allowed (4/6 games with 25+ points allowed)
17th in opposing scoring percentage (37.8%)
21st in total passing yards allowed (2,179)
21st in total passing touchdowns allowed (10)
Not great, not terrible, but not great.
Factor in the absence of Pro Bowl CB Jason Verrett and the potential of veteran CB Brandon Flowers (DNP), and we have ourselves a banged-up secondary on the road against a QB who has been red-hot to start the 2016 season. Good luck.
Silver: Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs ($6,100)
From now on, whoever is throwing the ball against the New Orleans Saints will make these articles until further notice. And by further notice, I mean until that secondary can hold a team to under 300 passing yards. Something they haven’t done all season, and haven’t done since Dec. 21, 2015. If you’re counting, that’s eight games in a row.
Smith hasn’t been fantasy-relevant since Week 1 against San Diego (34/48-363-2-1). However, expect him to go off this week. More specifically, with the completions. A nice Smith-Kelce-Maclin stack is pretty damn sexy this week. Maybe even work Chris Conley into a few flex positions for a measly $3,500? Either way, Smith is a must-start this week.
Bronze: Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens ($5,800), Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins ($5,900)
Shout-out to the Beltway on this one.
Here’s the deal on this one, both the Lions and the Jets’ secondaries have been deplorable. Don’t believe me, just ask Case Keenum.
Case Keenum, CASE KEENUM, had a DAY against the Lions last week! (27/32 (84.38%!)-321-3-1). The Lions have allowed opposing signal callers to complete a whopping 73.7% of passes.
The Jets, surprisingly enough, haven’t been much better. Rival QBs have completed 71.2% of passes. Needless to say, tickets to Revis Island are dirt-cheap on expedia.ca right now. We fantasy contrarians have been waiting for that week Joe Flacco goes off. Ladies and gents, Week 7 will be that week! This week, and for this week only, Joe Flacco is indeed, elite! There, I said it.
Gold: DeMarco Murray, Tennessee Titans ($7,200)
DeMarco Murray has done his best to change the narrative on his career in 2016. After a brief hiccup in Philly, he’s got things back on the right track in a positive way.
He currently trails only Ezekiel Elliot, LeSean McCoy and David Johnson in rushing yards, averages 87.7 yards per game and is quickly making Titans fans forget the abomination they deployed at running back last season.
Murray has been Draftkings gold, Jerry! He’s had 20+ points in each game leading up to last week. He did have a dud against the Browns last week, but I’m a believer that he can bounce back against a Colts run D that’s allowed 32.4 Draftking points a game to running backs this season. Expect greatness from Murray this Sunday.
Silver: Jacquizz Rodgers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($4,300)
With Doug Martin and Charlie Sims out in Week 5, Rodgers played a HUGE role in the Bucs upsetting the Panthers on Monday Night Football. He carries the ball 30 times, and was even targeted out of the backfield six times, catching five of them. With Martin and Sims out, he appears to have coach Koetter’s support. They were together in Atlanta, after all. It’s always a good sign when a coach brings over a player that he’s coached before.
The Niners suck against the run; dead-last in total rushing yards allowed. Rodgers should see anywhere from 20-25 touches in this one. Good value!
Bronze: Jeremy Hill, Cincinnati Bengals ($4,000)
This is a little bit on the expensive side for a bronze play, but we’ll take it.
My esteemed colleague Zak Sauer mentioned on this week’s Football with The Sportscrew, the status of one LeSean McCoy is murky to say the least. If he’s ruled out, by all means, get Mike Gillislee into a lineup or 12.
However, CBS Insider Jason La Canfora reports that there’s some optimism around McCoy seeing at least a limit role with the team this Sunday.
Anyways, the Bengals are 10-point favourites at home against the 0-6 Cleveland Browns. My gut tells me they get a lead early, then pound the rock. Who better to pound the rock than Jeremy Hill?
The game script appears to be in his favour,, it looks like this might be the game to start him. The price is right for me!
Gold: Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons ($9,200), A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals ($8,600)
Obviously if I’m playing Matt Ryan, Julio Jones is getting some love as well!
Do I really need to explain why paying-up for Julio is a worthwhile investment? He battled Richard Sherman all day last week, and came out the victor (7-139-1 on 9 targets). Yes, THAT Richard Sherman.
Just look at all those numbers I threw at you up top. They’re all applicable to this situation. Julio is going off this Sunday.
It might be a case of outta sight-outta mind when it comes to A.J. Green this week.
On Sunday, it will have been 24 days since A.J. Green had a performance that warranted top WR value. The Cowboys, and Patriots both did their jobs when it came to making sure that A.J. Green didn’t beat them. Both games, the Bengals were flat on the offensive side of the ball. That won’t happen this week against Cleveland.
The Browns rank 27th against the pass, have allowed the second-most TDs to pass catchers and opponents have scored on them in 40.3% of drives. A.J. Green also has 5 career TDs in 10 games against the rivals from upstate, for what it’s worth.
Silver: Jeremy Maclin, Kansas City Chiefs ($6,700)
Just about everything said about Alex Smith applies to Maclin here. The Saints’ defense is terrible and Maclin, Smith’s favourite target, should finally have the breakout game fantasy owners have been waiting for. The Saints have averaged 43.8 DraftKings points to opposing receivers this season (4th-most in the NFL). Maclin is a good start this week.
Bronze: Kendall Wright, Tennessee Titans ($3,700)
Wright’s issue was never one of talent, he’s a former first round pick. In 2013, his second year in the league, Wright posted 94-1,079-2 on 139 targets. In his career, he’s never played a full 16 games and has only played 10+ games in a season twice in four years. The question of Wright has never been talent, it’s durability.
Luckily for us DFS enthusiasts, we don’t need to roster Wright when he isn’t healthy. We can pick our spots, and let the stigma drive down his ownership percentage.
The Colts are 30th in completion percentage allowed (69.0 %) and Wright saw nine targets last week. He caught eight of them. Trust me, at $3,700, you won’t find much better value to “flex” in cash games.
Obviously, you’re starting Gronk if you have him in season-long leagues. But at $7,200, it’s just too steep a price to pay for a TE who doesn’t have a juicy matchup. Jordan Reed would have been ideal if he was active.
Silver: Dennis Pitta, Baltimore Ravens ($4,000)
The Jets have allowed opposing QBs to complete 71.2 % of passes. Dennis Pitta has been targeted by Joe Flacco 8+ times in 4/6 games this season. I could see Pitta reaching the end zone in this one.
Bronze: Jack Doyle, Indianapolis Colts ($2,500), Vernon Davis, Washington Redskins ($2,900)
With a healthy Dwayne Allen in the lineup, Allen and Doyle were getting even targets (27 for Allen, 23 for Doyle). Allen was second on the team in total targets, trailing only T.Y. Hilton (64). The tight end position has been targeted by Andrew Luck a total of 53 times. With Allen out, Doyle should get a huge upswing in opportunity. At $2,500, there’s some real upside here.
Remember how I said the Lions were amongst the worst in the NFL at letting QBs complete passes on them? Well, Vernon Davis will sit-in for an injured Jordan Reed against, you guessed it, the Lions. Mind you, there’s a few other options for Kirk Cousins (Garcon, Jackson, Crowder, Thompson out of the backfield), but he should still get his.
Gold: Denver Broncos ($3,800)
In New England, it took Brock Osweiler three whole quarters to enter Patriot territory. In Minnesota, Osweiler was picked-off once, sacked four times and held to under 200 yards through the air. The Broncos are going to come after this guy, put him on his ass and force him to turn over the ball. The Broncos are worth paying-up for this week.
Was tempted to pump-up the Baltimore Ravens, but that seems like a dicey proposition with the likes of Mosley and Dumervill ruled out, Suggs, Kendrick Lewis, Shareece Wright and Jimmy Smith not practicing; it leaves a little bit of doubt in my mind. Even with Geno Smith starting.
Bronze: Tennessee Titans ($2,500)
The Colts have been sacked on 8.8% of snaps this season. The Titans have had back-to-back games of 6 sacks. You do the math.