07 Jan Stromme’s Picks: Futures, Regular Season Results and Playoff Picks
By: Mike Stromme
Futures bets are a far-cry from any other wager made throughout the NFL season. It’s a goddamn roller coaster of emotions for those who wager on futures. There are so many twists, turns and subtle instances (injuries, suspensions), that can make or break a long-term prognostication of this magnitude. That being said, it’s those season-long twists and turns that make futures wagering all worth it. Well, that and the cash won or lost at the end of the season.
I’ll be looking back at my wagers I made back in the preseason (seen here), I will also be making a few new picks just before the playoffs kickoff this weekend.
(for argument’s sake, my “best bet” is a hypothetical $500 wager, “value play” a $300 bet and my “long-shots” are $100 bets.)
To Make Playoffs: Baltimore Ravens NO (-175, Best Bet)
Most Passing Yards: Drew Brees (+550, Best Bet)
Total Won: $4,035.66
AFC Championship Outright: New England Patriots (+275, Best Bet)
2016 AP Offensive Rookie of the Year: Ezekiel Elliot (-110, Best Bet)
Total up for grabs: $2,829.51
Total Wagered: $7,100 (-$3,064.63)
Here are some wagers I made that turned out to be downright comical:
To Make Playoffs: Jacksonville Jaguars YES (+175, Value Play)
To Make Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams YES (+300, Long Shot)
The two clubs won a combined SEVEN games…
I also had quite a bit of shares in the Cincinnati Bengals, Arizona Cardinals and *gulp* New York Jets…
Arizona Cardinals: NFC West Outright +140 (Best Bet), NFC Championship +650 (Best Bet), Super Bowl LI Outright +1100 (Best Bet). A Cardinal division title that lead to a Super Bowl victory would have paid $10, 949.82! Needless to say, I thought it was their year…
Cincinnati Bengals: AFC North Outright +180 (Value Play), AFC Championship Outright +800 (Value Play), Super Bowl LI Outright +1600. Oh the Bungles… What can I say? I figured they were due for some playoff success. A Bengals Super Bowl run would have cashed out at $8639.74.
New York Jets: AFC East Outright +503 (Long Shot), Super Bowl LI Outright +5000 (Long Shot). Some February Fitzmagic would have netted me $5,702.45… Should’ve known better than that…
This is what you get for putting faith in Ryan Fitzpatrick, Carson Palmer and Andy Dalton! Let this be a lesson you, DON’T TRUST THESE QUARTERBACKS!
Now that were on the topic of self-deprecation, here are some Long Shot wagers that were… well just the prognosticating version of falling on your face after stubbing your toe. But hey, they were fun while they lasted.
AP Offensive Rookie of the Year: Josh Doctson, +1400 (Value Play) … HE CAUGHT TWO PASSES ALL SEASON!
Most Passing Yards: Brock Osweiler +6600 (Long Shot) … Was I high?
MVP: J.J. Watt +2500, Todd Gurley +4900 (Value Plays). Hook, line and sinker! They got me on these ones.
AFC Championship Outright: San Diego Chargers +3300. Did I forget what division they play in?
Okay, okay, okay… Enough with the blooper reel. If the New England Patriots win two more games and the NFL’s rushing leader wins Rookie of the Year (he was -10000 to win the award three weeks ago), were pretty damn close to even money on the preseason wagers. Not terrible, not great either, but not terrible. Could be worse. Shout out Drew Brees and Antonio Brown for keeping me afloat (Brown for that outstretched TD on Christmas Night that officially eliminated the Ravens from postseason contention).
Let’s make some postseason futures!
Super Bowl Matchup:
Best Bet: New England Patriots/Atlanta Falcons +700
As much as I shit on the The Falcons in the Preseason, they made me eat my words (and then some). Matt Ryan is playing incredible football with or without Julio Jones, and is currently -200 to win the MVP. They have a first round bye, a dynamic offense and some fantastic young play-makers on defense. Why not Atlanta? New England, stop me if you’ve heard this from me before, but you don’t get rich betting against Bill and Tom. It also doubles-down on my AFC Championship future from August.
Value Plays: Dallas Cowboys/Pittsburgh Steelers +1000, Green Bay Packers/Pittsburgh Steelers +2000 and New England Patriots/New York Giants +2000
The Steelers and Packers are the two hottest teams in football lead by quarterbacks in their prime that have been there/done that. Why not take them?
The Cowboys have been playing incredibly responsible football all season, have home-field through the playoffs and would not have to leave the state of Texas until the 2017 preseason. Needless to say, they’re in a decent spot to reach
the Super Bowl.
Steve Spagnoulo’s $200 million defense gelled in the second half, and is now one of the best in the NFL right now. Their path to the Super Bowl presumably goes through Lambeau and Jerry’s World. Eli Manning might have a tendency to get generous with the football at times. However, he’s gone into the frozen Tundra that is Lambeau Field in January not once, but twice in his career and came out on-top each time. Each trip has propelled him and his Giants to Super Bowl victories. Plus, the narrative is too juicy to pass-up at this price.
Long Shot: Kansas City Chiefs/Detroit Lions+15000
The Chiefs haven’t been to the Super Bowl since Super Bowl IV and the Lions… Well, they’ve never been. However, this line seems like an incredible value given that the Lions have an offense that’s capable of getting hot at anytime and the Chiefs only need two wins to get into the big game. The Lions, however need to develop some sort of pass rush in order to get hot this January. A $100 wager pays a used Honda Civic in decent condition, so why not?
Best Bet: New England Patriots +275 (Preseason price, the line is now -200)
Just to be clear, this isn’t a new wager; it’s my pre-existing bet from the preseason.
There’s a decent shot that the Patriots get either the Raiders or Texans in Foxborough in the Divisional round. So, it’s really just one win against a formidable opponent for this wager to cash. Might be better off doing a roll-ove
r* wager with this one as well, but I have no problem laying -200 either.
Value Play: Pittsburgh Steelers +350
The hottest team in the conference lead by an offense that would rival the Greatest Show on Turf is a pretty solid bet
getting plus-money. The Killer Bs are more than capable of getting it done this January.
Briefly thought about the Miami Dolphins at +3000, but then I came to my senses. To me, it’s either the Steelers or Patriots that come out of the AFC.
*Roll-Over Wager: Instead of taking a heavy-favourite in a future’s bet, you use the money that would be waged on a future’s play and bet the team to win each game on the moneyline. Using the profits made from the previous game in the wager for the next game as well. Sometimes value can be found this way.
Best Bet: Atlanta Falcons +350
I firmly believe that this team is clicking on all cylinders right now. This offense is outright lethal, and I believe that the defense is more than capable of making a huge play at the right time. The first-round bye helps things as well.
Value Play: Green Bay Packers +350
Same odds as the Falcons, but they have to play one more game in order to get there. Like I said, they’re the hottest
team in the NFC. They’ve run the table thus far, who’s to say they can’t keep this train rolling?
Long Shot: New York Giants +800
This team isn’t scared of the teams in front of them and Eli Manning can easily catch lightening in a bottle. I mean, he’s done it twice already.
Super Bowl LI Winner:
Best Bet: New England Patriots +190
They have, by far, the easiest path to the Super Bowl. They’ve done it many times before, this is nothing new for Belichick and Brady.
Value Plays: Green Bay Packers +650, Pittsburgh Steelers +750 and Atlanta Falcons +900
I’ve now beaten the reasons why I like these teams to go far this postseason to death… Scroll up if you’re unsure.
Long Shot: New York Giants +1600
Again, you know why.
For more football talk, follow me on Twitter @stromme_93 !