14 Oct Stromme’s Selections: Striking DraftKings Gold, Week 6 Picks
By: Mike Stromme
Gold: Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints ($7,900)
We all saw what Mike Evans did to the Panthers’ secondary last Monday night; and if you didn’t, I’m sure you’d remember Julio’s 300 yard game. This may seem like the glaringly obvious pick, but in the grind of the bye weeks, you sometimes gotta lay down some chalk.
Also, Drew Brees is at home; 311.0 yds/game for his career inside a dome. Home sweet dome, baby!
Silver: Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks ($6,300)
Here’s the deal, Hussle Thrilson has only been getting stronger as this season has progressed. Here’s his last three games:
Week 1: 27/43-258-1-1
Week 2: 22/35-254-0-0
Week 3: 15/23-243-1-0
Week 4: 23/32-309-3-0
He battled a plethora of injuries to start the season (a sore ankle and sprained MCL to name a few), but he seems to have managed the pain just fine. Coming out of the bye week, he should be more than okay, especially given his next opponent, the Atlanta Falcons.
Don’t get me wrong, the 4-1 Falcons are one of the pleasant surprises of the season thus far. They’ve rattled off four straight wins after dropping their opener to the 2-3 Bucs. However, their pass defense has left much to be desired. 28th in completion % against, 27th in passing yards against and they’ve allowed 14 passing touchdowns this season (tied with the Lions for the most in the league). I’m thinking that the Seahawks passing attack might be in for a day.
Bronze: Brian Hoyer, Chicago Bears ($5,800)
Okay, the man has thrown for 91/128(71%)-,1,016-6-0 over the past three weeks, has a favourable matchup against the Jaguars, is coming off a week where only Tom Brady had a better fantasy week than him and he’s only $5,800?! This is almost too good to be true.
Hoyer, much like my Toronto Blue Jays, has been unbelievably hot in the month of October. I’m sure his inevitable downfall is baked into his price. But my god, ride this streak while you can! What do you have to lose?
This gravy train will come to a halt soon though, Hoyer and the Bears get the Vikings in two weeks.
Gold: Le’Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers ($7,900)
Bell’s only played two games this season; both of which have came against strong defensive fronts in the Jets and Chiefs. In each game, he’s had 24.4 and 25.8 DraftKing points respectively. This week, he gets the Dolphins.
While the Dolphins have talent on their defensive line in Wake, Suh, Williams, Misi, Alonso, ect.,they haven’t stepped up at all over the past year and five weeks. The Miami Dolphins have allowed the most rushing yards and are 9-point underdogs. The Steelers should roll in this one, giving Bell the ball tons in the second half. Expect 100+ yards from scrimmage and a score.
Silver: Lamar Miller, Houston Texans ($6,600)
If you’ve been following my work throughout my brief career as a fantasy football pontificater, you should know that I haven’t always been kind to a Mr. Lamar Miller. Traditionally, I have not been a fan of his body of work. Well, Week 6 of the 2016 season marks the first time in my entire career that I fully, wholeheartedly recommend and endorse Lamar Miller to be a top option for your fantasy lineups. Both in DFS and in traditional season-long formats (although, if Miller is on your team, odds are you took him in the first couple rounds. So you’re starting him anyways).
Last week’s blowout in Minneapolis aside (game flow severely limited his production in my opinion), Miller has had at least 21 carries in three of his first four games. In the one game he failed to reach 20+ carries, he touted the rock 19 times.
What I’m trying to say is, volume should not be an issue for Miller this week. He’s a certain lock for 20+ touches against a visiting Colts run defense that ranks 29th in rush yards/attempt allowed and LAST in scoring percentage allowed.
Recency bias has made a once overrated Miller underrated, this is baked into his $6,600 price tag. Be sure to work him into a lineup or two.
There is not a single running back priced below $4,500 that I would feel confident in starting in any cash games. I thought about Cameron Artis-Payne, Jonathan Stewart has been a full participant in practice this week and if he doesn’t get the start, he’ll at the very least, get a portion of the carries for the Panthers.
Honestly, I think the value this week is in the tier just below the top guys (Brown, Beckham, Green, Julio). This isn’t the week to pay-up for these guys.
Silver: Amari Cooper, Oakland Raiders ($7,500), Brandin Cooks, New Orleans Saints ($7,600), Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals ($7,700)
Amari Cooper is a star just waiting to break out. He’s physically-gifted, is in an offense that likes to feed him the ball (47 targets in 5 games) and this week, gets a Chiefs defense that has disappointed thus far. While they haven’t been bottom-feeders, they haven’t been the greatest either. Statistically, they’ve been pretty solid against the pass (13th in completion percentage against, 14th in passing yards/attempt, 16th in total passing touchdowns allowed). However, they’ve only sacked the QB on 3.4% of defensive snaps thus far, only the Giants have been worse. Derek Carr is already tough enough to take down as is, Carr has only hit the turf in 2.5% of snaps this season (best in the NFL). I fully expect Derek Carr to be upright most of the game, in order to find his boy Amari.
Now, we all saw what Julio Jones did to the Panthers two weeks ago. Mike Evans followed up that performance with 6/89/1 on 12 targets. I see Brandin Cooks falling somewhere in between the two this week. Cooks is an incredibly versatile receiver; he can play in the slot, take the bubble screen, run a strong nine-route and any pattern in between. Drew Brees and the Saints will find a way to get him the ball somehow, and he’ll make plays. Mark my words: HE’LL MAKE PLAYS! Start Cooks.
Here’s a fact that may shock some, the New York Jets have a terrible pass defense. Sure, the sharp recession on Revis Island has been a well-known, thoroughly-discussed subplot of the Jets’ season; most specifically, his tendency to be beaten deep. However, did you know that it’s not just the long-ball burning the Jets? Opposing receivers have caught more passes against the Jets than 23 other pass defenses. A whopping 71.7% of passes are being completed on this New York secondary; that ties them with the Detroit Lions for the worst in the NFL. The Jets get Larry Fitzgerald and the Arizona Cardinals on Monday Night Football this week. I expect Cardinal pass catchers to have a good day against the Jets, but none more than the seasoned-veteran Larry Fitzgerald, who’s been targeted by Carson Palmer and Drew Stanton 47 times in 5 games this season. Look for Larry to have a BIG PPR game this week.
Bronze: Will Fuller, Houston Texans ($5,900), Tavon Austin, Los Angeles Rams ($3,900)
Remember last week in Chicago when a guy named Cameron Meredith went OFF against the Colts? Yeah, me too. Not gunna lie, I didn’t know who he was either. Anyways, I think the reason why Meredith exploded the way he did was a direct result of the Colts and Vontae Davis focusing all of their energy on Alshon Jeffery, leaving the secondary receivers for the taking. With Darius Butler ruled OUT in this contest and a lack of depth behind him, I can see the Colts cutting their losses and trying to make Will Fuller beat them. Which, by the way, he’s more than capable of doing. Much like his teammate Lamar Miller, I expect Will Fuller to have a big day in Prime Time. Here’s to hoping recency bias limits his ownership percentage.
Like I mentioned before, the Detroit Lions have allowed a whopping 71.7% of completed passes to opposing QBs. Tavon Austin leads all Los Angeles receivers in targets this season with 45. To me, Tavon Austin is the perfect tournament option at the flex position. He’s a threat for a big play in the receiving, rushing and even return game. Going up against a pass defense that’s been downright deplorable thus far, paired with the deep throws that teams allow Case Keenum to attempt as a result of stacking the box against Todd Gurley, i feel like Austin has a big play or two in him this Sunday. The cheap price tag and stigma of being a Los Angeles Rams receiver make him a fantastic tournament play this week.
Gold: Delanie Walker, Tennessee Titans ($5,500)
Did you not see what both Gronk and Martellus Bennett did to the Cleveland Browns last week? Yes, I know that chasing DK points is a bit of a sucker’s bet, but it’s a pattern of futility that makes Delanie Walker a fantastic option at the TE position this week. The Browns have allowed a whopping 136.7 DK points to TEs this season. If you’re keeping track at home, that’s 27.3 points per week. Walker hasn’t yet to produce that monster game this season, Week 6 is going to be that week! Get’em before he goes off!
Silver: Jimmy Graham, Seattle Seahawks ($4,900)
Jimmy’s been en fuego the last couple weeks for the Seahawks, cashing in for 44.3 points in two games. This week, Jimmy gets the Atlanta Falcons, who have allowed 99 points to tight ends this season. Five times this year, opposing tight ends have scored five times this season. After Week 6, it will be SEVEN. That’s right folks, Jimmy Graham is my Double-dip of the week! Get the ball to Jimmy!
Bronze: Jesse James, Pittsburgh Steelers ($3,000)
Larry Fitzgerald, Jordy Nelson and Emmanuel Sanders: the only three players in the NFL who have been targeted inside the 10 yards line more than The Outlaw, Jesse James.
James has caught four of his five red zone targets, three of them have gone for touchdowns. In a game where I feel like the Steelers will roll, James should get his opportunities for pay dirt glory. How is he only $3,000? Seems like a bargain to me.
Silver: Los Angeles Rams ($2,900)
Tough week for the Rams last week against the Bills. With Michael Brockers, William Hayes and Robert Quinn (75% of their defensive line) inactive last week, LeSean McCoy had his way with their replacements.
If their good to go, this looks like a sexy matchup for the Rams. The Lions have been sacked on 7.1% of offensive snaps this season (27th in the NFL). Last season, these two teams squared-off in St. Louis. The Rams sacked Stafford four times, picked him off, forced a fumble and limited them to just 14 points. This game was played in the second-half of the season, when the Lions were red-hot.
Also, don’t forget the ST aspect of D/ST; especially if you can work Tavon Austin in your lineup. This could be one of those sexy punt return TD double-dips.
Bronze: New Orleans Saints ($2,000)
No, I am not under the influence. I am suggesting that you start the New Orleans Saints D/ST this week.
Are they going to get scored on? Hell yeah they are, there’s no question about that. But, let’s take a look at how Draftkings scores their defenses for a second. The difference between the Saints giving up 14 points and 34 points is literally -2 points. You lose just two points if the Saints hold the Panthers to 34 points.
However, you can make up that difference if the Panthers turn the ball over. Which, they’ve been known to do this season. The Panthers have a 20.7% turnover percentage, only Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Jets have done worse this season. For those who are unaware, Draftkings scores +2 on an interception and +2 on a recovered fumble. If Cam throws just one pick, the Saints can give up 34 points and you’re still even on the day. He’s thrown five this season, who’s to say the Saints defense doesn’t make a play or two in this one? At $2,000, I’m more than willing to make that wager.
An amazing contrarian D/ST play for those tournament plays. Save that dough to load-up elsewhere.