30 Sep Stromme’s Six-Pack: Week 4 Best Bets
IBy: Mike Stromme – @stromme_93
What’s happening, SportsCrew?!
It’s your resident NFL handicapper Mike Stromme, and I’m back with YOUR Six-Pack!
We’re coming of a NEAR PERFECT week three! Last week’s six-pack went a WHOPPING 5-1, including a PERFECT 3-0 against the spread!!!
Even my picks against the spread on The SportsCrew Staff picks page went 13-2!!! The only games I was on the wrong side of there was the Monday Nighter, and … the um… Lions…
Anyway you slice it, WERE HOT! Let’s ride this wave… LET THE GOOD TIMES ROLL!!!
Year To Date:
Against the Spread: 8-3
1) New Orleans Saints -3:
For our first pick, we go to jolly ol’ London for the second international game of the season between the Dolphins and Saints.
If all things were considered equal, this game would look like a juicy spot for the Miami Dolphins. However, things are far from equal for this Dolphins schedule. I mean, just take a look at their travel schedule thus far. They began the season in chaotic fashion; having to flee their home state of florida for Los Angeles over their impromptu bye week. They then had to travel from SoCal, all the way to the Meadowlands for a tilt with the far-less talented New York Jets, a game in which they were seconds away from being shut-out.
Now, they must travel abroad to London; the team’s third different time zone in three weeks. To me, this team looked jet-lagged last week in New Jersey. Can you imagine what kind of effort they’re going to bring forward after crossing an ocean!?
Jay Cutler isn’t the most motivated QB in ideal conditions. Can you imagine what kind of effort he’ll put in after travelling over 5,400 Miles in two weeks?!
The Miami Dolphins did NOT fair well during their last trip to London in 2015. The loss cost then-Head Coach Joe Philbin his coaching gig. While I don’t think a loss would end in a firing of the Head Coach Adam Gase, I do expect a similar result on the gridiron.
I’ll lay three with the Saints in this one.
2) Los Angeles Rams-Dallas Cowboys OVER 48.5
For our second pick, We go Jerry’s world where a young, up-start Rams team matches up with Dak, Zeke and America’s Team.
One of the biggest surprises of this young season is the instant success of Jared Goff, Todd Gurley and this Los Angeles Rams offense under new Head Coach Sean McVay. The team LEADS the NFL in Points Scored (107), have scored on exactly HALF of their offensive drives and are just one of four teams this season who have had totals go 3-0 to the OVER in 2017.
One of the weaknesses of this young Rams team is their run defense. They give up 139.0 yards per game on the ground, that’s good enough for 28th in the NFL. The weakness is largely due to the fact that this defensive unit is transitioning to Wade Phillips’ 3-4 after playing in Jeff Fisher’s 4-3 for years. Star DT Aaron Donald’s contract hold out probably didn’t help things either.
Either way, we all know that the strength of this Cowboy offense is their ability to run the ball with Ezekiel Elliott, I expect the Rams to get gashed on the ground in this one.
I also expect Jared Goff and this Rams passing attack to exploit a Dallas secondary that has been getting picked apart the last two weeks. Trevor Siemian and Carson Palmer have combined for a 63.8% completion percentage with a TD-INT ratio of 6-1.
I expect a lot of points in this one. I’ll take OVER 48.5
3) Los Angeles Rams +6.5
Staying with this Rams-Cowboys matchup, I like the underdog Rams getting nearly a touchdown.
I expect this game to be a back-and-fourth matchup with both teams marching up and down the field, a close game for all the reasons I previously stated. Both offenses are more than capable of exploiting the opposing defense. This should be a track meet.
However, there’s a little extra bit of an edge with the Rams given that their last game was last Thursday. The Cowboys, on the other hand, are coming off a road game on a short week. That little bit of an edge can go a long way.
In a matchup between former divisional rivals, I like the Rams getting +6.5.
4) Houston Texans +2.5
For the first time this season, the Tennessee Titans DID NOT make my six pack. In fact, I’ve decided to go against them and take the Houston Texans +2.5.
For me, this one’s simply a case of line value. I’m getting nearly a field goal with a home team in a divisional game. DeShaun Watson and this offense can do enough against this Tennessee Titans defense that has given up points on 38.2% of drives; that ranks 22nd in the NFL.
I also think that JJ Watt, Jadeveon Clowney and this Houston Defense can keep Marcus Mariota and the rushing tandem of DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry in-check.
I’ll gladly take the home dog in an evenly-matched divisional matchup. Gimme the Texans +2.5.
5) San Francisco 49ers +6.5
Our fifth pick comes in an NFC West showdown between the 49ers and Cardinals.
In this one, I’m using a similar angle to my Rams-Cowboys pick against the spread. We literally have the same situation, a team in the Niners who have a few extra days of rest against a team on a short week in the Cardinals.
The Niners have played two games inside their division already this season against the Rams and Seahawks. While they lost each of those games outright, they covered both spreads as underdogs and could have just as easily won both contests.
This Cardinal offense is drastically different without David Johnson or a consistent receiving option opposite Larry Fitzgerald. My gut tells me that the 49ers can hang around in this one. I’ll take +6.5 with San Francisco.
6) Indianapolis Colts +13
For the third week in a row, our final pick of the six pack is on the Sunday Night game. This week, we get the Colts rolling into Seattle for a tilt with the Seahawks.
For this game, I’m going to take the Colts +13. It’s not so much an endorsement of Jacoby Brissett and the Colts, but more of an indictment on this Seahawk team that has failed to impress thus far in 2017.
Sure, going into Lambeau in Week 1 is no easy task, playing the Titans in their home stadium on nearly the otherside of the country isn’t a great spot either. However in Week 2, this team held Brian Hoyer and the San Francisco 49ers to under 100 yards through the air AND STILL ALMOST LOST OUTRIGHT as a 14-point home favourite. To me, that’s rather concerning.
The Seahawks are also a little banged-up Doug Baldwin, Michael Bennett, CJ Prosise, Earl Thomas and CB Neiko Thorpe all missing practice this week. Star CB Richard Sherman was also limited in practice and has been nicked-up all season long. This defense with a limited Thomas and/or Sherman is a bit of a concern.
While I don’t expect the Colts to win this game outright, they can easily keep this game within two scores. Ill take the Colts +13.
That will do it for this week’s Six-Pack! May your picks be RED HOT and your pints ICE COLD!