10 Sep Stromme’s Selections: Week 1 Picks: Spreads, Totals, Over/Under
By: Mike Stromme
Alright, so if you tuned into Football With The SportsCrew (if not, here it is) you heard me and my SportsCrew colleagues Lou Landers and Zak Sauer break-down the full slate of games and give our picks. While I did give my takes and make picks on just about every game, I’ll tell you which ones make my final board here.
Like I said on the broadcast, I feel like if you blindly bet dogs against the spread this week, you’d come out ahead. Something tells me the dogs will be barking this week.
Year To Date:
ATS: 1-0 (if you look over my twitter feed (@stromme_93) you’ll see that I backed the Broncos on Thursday night.)
Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Jets (+2.5) 42.0
Pick: Jets +2.5
The J-E-T-S! JETS, JETS, JETS! Are calling my name in this one. Not only are the Bengals taking 74% of public money at -2.5, the line hasn’t budged all week. Why? The books like New York in this one, as do I.
For the Bengals, there’s no Tyler Eifert, A.J. Green gets to deal with Darrelle Revis all day and Jeremy Hill and Gio Bernard have to face a tough Jets’ defensive front. Offensively, Andy Dalton essentially has rookie WR Tyler Boyd and Brandon LaFell to throw to, good luck.
Not to mention that the game will be played in New York (New Jersey, technically) on the 15th anniversary of 9/11. There’s going to be a buzz in the Meadowlands this Sunday. Gimme the Jets.
Cleveland Browns @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) 41.0
Picks: Browns +3.5 and OVER 41.0
First of all, this total is criminally low. Cleveland is a much-improved offense with the additions of a fresh Robert Griffin III, Corey Coleman and Head Coach Hue Jackson. I believe in this Cleveland offense, I don’t believe in the Eagles’ secondary, despite the addition of Jim Schwartz to this coaching staff. Coleman and RGIII will make some sweet music together in Philly.
While I believe in the Cleveland offense, I’m weary of laying points with a rookie QB who only had around 30 preseason snaps under his belt; even if he was the second pick in the draft. He’ll make some mistakes.
I think Cleveland’s passing attack makes some noise, so do Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles for the home team. This game will be back and fourth, but the Browns will come out on-top after the final whistle. Gimme the dog(pound) in this one and the over.
Green Bay Packers @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+6) 48.0
Picks: Jaguars +6 and OVER 48
Okay, here’s the deal: we ALL know that the Packers are the superior team on all sides of the ball. But, the gap between these two teams aren’t nearly as vast as people may think. And, with 83% of ATS money going on the Packers, it tells me that Johnny Public thinks this Jacksonville squad is the same ol’ Jags.
They’re not. They’re an up-and-coming team that oozes young talent on all sides of the ball. Realistically, the Jags are from a talent standpoint, 80-85 % of what the Packers are. Add that to the fact that the Packers are on the road, having to travel 1,000+ miles South to play in that heavy Florida heat and humidity. If you can find these prop bets, take over 3.5 Packers leaving the game because of cramping and Packers to wear the darker colours. The Jags have
more of a home field advantage than you think.
I could see the Packers pulling this thing out, in a 32-30 kind of game. Gimme the Jags and the over in Duval County!
Minnesota Vikings @ Tennessee Titans (+2.5) 41.0
Picks: Vikings -2.5 UNDER 41
This game will be, by far, the most boring game of the week. Both teams project to be run-first, ball control, conservative offenses. However, the personnel the Vikings bolster on defense and at running back is far more superior to the one Tennessee will bring to the table.
Shaun Hill is the confirmed starter. He’s more than likely the reason why the public isn’t pounding the crap out of the Vikings. Listen, on this team, he doesn’t NEED to be Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees. All Hill needs to do is avoid turnovers and hand the ball to Adrian Peterson, he’s more than capable of that.
I see the Norsemen of the Midwest winning a 20-10 type of ball game. Take the over on total punts.
Oakland Raiders @ New Orleans Saints (-1.5) 51.5
Picks: Saints -1.5 OVER 51.5
This game is the Chris Hardwick game of the week: points, Points, POINTS!
This is the game that DFS players need to get shares in. Two very capable offenses in a dome, this game could go over the number early in the second half.
As far as a side, give me the Saints. As we all should know by now, the Saints under Drew Brees and Sean Payton are a .600 team in the SuperDome. Drew Brees averages 280+ yards per game at home as well. Saints should take care of business in this one.
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys (PK) 46.5
Pick: OVER 46.5
These games ALWAYS seem to be high-scoring, back-and-forth affairs. I expect this one to follow suit.
Dallas doesn’t have anything that resembles a pass rush, Eli and Odell will have plenty of time in the pocket to find each other. I’m a believer in Dak Presscott and this Cowboy offense as well.
This Joe Buck-Troy Aikman FOX game of the week won’t disappoint.
Detroit Lions @ Indianapolis Colts (-3) 50.5
Pick: Lions +3
In my opinion, the Lions are the superior team. I think they two teams are damn-close to each other offensively, but the Lions have a sizeable edge defensively. The Colts are old, slow and already banged-up on defense, just look at their injury report:
CB Vontae Davis (out)
CB Darius Butler (Questionable, DNP)
S Clayton Geathers (Questionable, DNP)
DT Colt Anderson (Questionable)
DE Kendall Langford (Questionable, DNP)
The Lions are going to have a ton of time to rip apart this defense. I like them to walk into Lucas Oil Stadium and put up some points. Gimme the points with the road dog.
New England Patriots @ Arizona Cardinals (-7) 45.5
Picks: Patriots +7
I’m pretty sure that the last time New England was an underdog of at least a touchdown and nobody was backing them (78% public bets on Arizona -7) was Super Bowl XXXVI against The Greatest Show on Turf.
Seriously though, I know there’s no Brady, no Gronk, but if you give Bill Belichick months to prep for a game AND a touchdown, the Patriots will cover. Book it! Nobody has ever gotten rich consistently betting against the hooded one over the last 15 years.
Okay, that will do it for my Week 1 selections! For prop bets, and further analysis on gameday, follow @stromme_93 on Twitter!
Best of Luck, ladies and gentleman! Let’s beat the books together!